Twenty years later we are facing the inconvenient truth that net zero remains an act of faith in as-yet unproven technological breakthroughs promoted in the shadow of military conflict in oil-rich countries.
The world has depended on Middle East and Russian markets to satisfy energy demand, and progress on decarbonisation has been complicated by the political madness of tariffs on global trade.
In addition, the battle for mineral rights vital to the development of zero carbon energy solutions, that will reduce demand for fossil fuels and in the process lessen the impact of greenhouse gas emissions, has become a priority for the world’s leading economic powers.
The inconvenient truth about net zero is that we need to accept that the task of decarbonising the world we live in while preserving economic growth is currently an unimaginable goal to be delivered in less than two decades.
In the House of Lords Lord Tony Woodley, a former Vauxhall worker and leader of the TGWU, explained how the ZEV Mandate was putting unsustainable pressure on vehicle manufacturers, putting manufacturing operations such as Vauxhall’s Elsmere Port plant at risk, and urged the Government to seriously reconsider the penalties that will be applied from 2025 for non-compliance with electric vehicle sales targets. Failure to do so would be political suicide, he said.
At the same time in France at the Paris Motor Show the head of BMW, Oliver Zipse, told the assembled press that the 2035 cut-off for CO2-emitting vehicles was no longer realistic. It would, in his opinion, lead to massive shrinkage of the industry as a whole. Volvo Cars has also announced that it is reconsidering its100%-EV production from 2030 plans, and will continue to sell hybrid vehicle post 2030.
These announcements come after the industry faced a severe slowdown in EV demand in major markets, and uncertainty of supply due to the imposition of trade tariffs on EVs made in China.
Both VW and Mercedes recognise that the industry is now facing a crisis of confidence and Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Kallenius pledged the companies ICE vehicles will exist as long as demand remains for them.
Since the introduction of the ZEV mandate, we have seen thousands of automotive jobs lost in the UK. Honda’s car plant in Swindon: 3,500 jobs, and Ford’s Bridgend engine factory: 1700 jobs lost to name just two, and there are potential job losses at a further six or eight locations.
The other inconvenient truth about the UK road transport industry is that while it represents 20% (c, 90 mt CO2) of the UK’s total CO2 (381mtCO2) emissions, the total emissions from vans and heavy trucks represent 0.005% of the planets total emissions. It is recognised that the UK has made serious progress in reducing emissions from 1990 levels, yet our commercial vehicle industry does not get the credit is deserves for the environmental progress it has made.
Like it or not we are in a world of extreme energy politics and the attempted decarbonisation of our planet let alone our transport industry is unlikely to deliver the aims of the 2015 Paris agreement in the next two decades.
While wind and wave-driven energies are to be applauded as renewables it must be recognised that as intermittent energy sources, they are still reliant on a more robust energy storage strategy, and built on three of the pillars of modern civilisation. These are concrete for the foundations of wind turbines, steel for the turbine towers and plastic resin for the protection of the giant blades.
There will be eight billion tonnes of CO2 generated every year by these vital commodities until alternative material or manufacturing methodologies are discovered.
Four countries: USA, China, India, and Russia; currently emit over 55% of the worlds CO2 emissions. So, until these four countries and the industrial production of the commodities defined as the pillars of modern society are subject to serious efforts to decarbonise then the inconvenient truth about net zero is that we need to think very carefully about how a modern civilisation operates.
The solutions lie with geo-political agreements that we currently have zero visibility of. The truth remains that until the military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are resolved and the trade war tensions between the USA and China are concluded, there will be doubt of our ability to restrict global warming to less than two degrees Centigrade.
The future of the automotive industry, and the transport sector in particular in the UK, will depend on how quickly we embrace the transition to a zero carboneconomy.
The inconvenient truth I would like to end on, is that in order for the UK to retain c 250,000 people currently employed assembling over 1.5 million cars pa. we need to invest in a minimum of three 35gwh capacity Gigafactories.
Sadly, China has won the battery race. It dominates both world production of batteries and the supply of rare earth materials necessary for their manufacture, such as lithium, cobalt, and graphite.
Currently the UK has zero investment in battery manufacturing facilities and the highly-respected Faraday Institute, a Government battery technology research organisation, forecasts possibly up to a million jobs in today’s and future production and supply chain sectors will be lost unless this situation is rectified.
This, unfortunately is the inconvenient truth behind Net Zero ambitions in the UK, versus our automotive supply chains.
